BJP has only witnessed decline in vote share since 2014

Even though the BJP was able to secure victory in the recently-held Gujarat Elections, but the public mood was evident from the fact that it witnessed 11 percent fall in support as compared to 2014.

Since the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections, assembly elections have been held in 18 states. The elections have taken place in Assam, Bihar, Delhi, Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir, Jharkhand, Kerala, Maharashtra, Pondicherry, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa, Manipur, Uttar Pradesh and most recently in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh.

If one sees at the results, then the BJP emerged as the largest single party in three states, won in five with outright majority and lost in ten.

But, the hidden fact is that the saffron party suffered a slide in support in 14 of the 18 states as compared to the support granted to it in the 2014 General Elections.

Let’s see the percentage drop of the BJP party vote share in every state in alphabetical manner:

• In Assam, despite emerging as the largest single party for the first time, the percentage of votes won by it reduced from 36.86% to 29.51%.
• In Bihar, from 29.86% to 24.42%.
• In Delhi, from 46.63% to 32.19%.
• In Haryana, from 34.84% to 33.2%.
• In Jammu & Kashmir, from 32.65% to 22.98%.
• In Jharkhand, from 40.71% to 31.26%.
• In Tamil Nadu, from 5.56% to 2.84%.
• In West Bengal, from 17.02% to 10.16%.
• In Punjab, from 8.77% to 5.39%.
• In Uttarakhand, from 55.93% to 46.51%.
• In Uttar Pradesh, from 42.63% to 39.67%.
• In Goa, from 54.12% to 32.48%.
• In Himachal Pradesh, from 53.85% to 48.80%.
• In Gujarat, from 60.11% to 49.10%.
• In Kerala, it made a miniscule gain – 10.45%to 10.53%.
• In Maharashtra – where it fought almost all assembly seats, as opposed to contesting only about 50% of constituencies in the Lok Sabha election, it was up merely from 27.56% to 27.81%.
• In Pondicherry, the BJP did not put up a candidate in the general election; it obtained a meagre 2.41% of votes in the state polls. The Congress won an absolute majority here.
• In Manipur, it made a gain of 11.98% to 36.28%. This was more than a 300% jump – which rather defies logic.
• In the other two states the gain was either negligible or not comparable (as in the case of Pondicherry).

It is noteworthy the erosion began as early as the second half of 2014. This is not anybody’s opinion. They are incontestable statistical facts based on the Election Commission of India’s official figures.

Now, one can come up with the argument that BJP has been a non-player in Kerala, Pondicherry, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. With that logic, it shouldn’t have been able to win Assam and Haryana for the first time as well.

In Gujarat, BJP witnessed 11 percent fall in its support as compared to 2014. On the other hand, the Congress saw defeat in Himachal, but it marginally polled more votes than in 2014 – rising from 41.07% to 41.7%.

People have started characterising PM Modi as a man without performance.

From the jobless growth since he took office to the continued job losses, especially after demonetisation, from food inflation to farmers’ woes, nothing is now hidden from the general public.

The decline in its vote share has suggested one thing for sure – that the game is on for the state elections in 2018 and the 2019 General Elections.

Credit: National Herald