ADB cuts India’s GDP growth forecast to 5.1% in FY20

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has cut India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast in 2019-20 to 5.1 per cent. It has cited slow job growth which has affected consumption and poor harvest aggravating rural distress as reasons for its revision of GDP growth forecast.

A growth of 6.5 per cent in 2019-20 and 7.2 per cent in the year thereafter was forecast by ADB in September.

“India’s growth is now seen at a slower 5.1 per cent in fiscal year 2019-20 as the foundering of a major non-banking financial company in 2018 led to a rise in risk aversion in the financial sector and a credit crunch,” news agency PTI quoted ADB as saying.

“Also, consumption was affected by slow job growth and rural distress aggravated by a poor harvest,” it said.

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Data released by National Statistical Office (NSO) on November 29 showed that India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the July-September quarter decelerated to 4.5 per cent, lowest in 26 quarters.

The Gross Value Added (GVA) for the second quarter (July-September) was recorded at 4.3 per cent.

“GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q2 of 2019-20 is estimated at Rs 35.99 lakh crore, as against Rs 34.43 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 4.5 per cent. Quarterly GVA (Basic Price) at Constant (2011-2012) Prices for Q2 of 2019-20 is estimated at Rs 33.16 lakh crore, as against Rs 31.79 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 4.3 percent over the corresponding quarter of previous year,” the government said in a statement.

It was also seen that growth of the core sector (eight core industries comprises coal, crude oil, natural gas, steel, cement, electricity, fertilizer and refinery products) for the month of October contracted to 5.8% from the 5.2% contraction seen in September.