Moody’s lowers India’s economic growth to 5.6% for 2019-20

Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday cut India’s GDP growth to 5.6 per cent for the financial year 2019-20.

“We have revised down our growth forecast for India. We now forecast slower real GDP growth of 5.6 per cent in 2019, from 7.4 per cent in 2018,” Moody’s said on Thursday.

Just last week, it had cut India’s ratings outlook to “negative” from “stable”.

“India’s economic growth has decelerated since mid-2018, with real GDP growth slipping from nearly 8 per cent to 5 per cent in the second quarter of 2019 and joblessness rising. Investment activity was muted well before that, but the economy was buoyed by strong consumption demand. What is troubling about the current slowdown is that consumption demand has cooled notably,” it added.

In October, Moody’s had lowered its growth forecast for India to 5.8 per cent from 6.2 per cent.

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According to Ecowrap, a monthly report by the Economic Research Department of State Bank of India (SBI), India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow at 4.2 per cent in the July-September quarter and at 5 per cent in the fiscal year 2019-20.

The full-year growth projection as predicted by the SBI is one of the lowest that any institution has predicted so far. It is also 1.1 per cent lower than its earlier prediction of 6.1 per cent.

Many international agencies have lowered their growth projections for the Indian economy due to industrial sector slowdown and massive unemployment.

Financial services firm Nomura’s forecast of 4.9 per cent GDP growth for the full year has so far been the lowest and most negative.

According to World Bank, India will grow at 6 per cent in the fiscal year 2019-20 whereas according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and International Monetary Fund (IMF), India will grow at 6.1 per cent in the fiscal year 2019-20.